The Boise real estate market is entering a period of stabilization after years of volatility driven by economic swings, migration surges, and rapid price increases. Higher interest rates, shifting migration patterns, and changing buyer expectations are prompting both buyers and sellers to recalibrate their approach. Unlike the dramatic upswings and downturns of the past decade, the current market is defined by a slower pace and increased pragmatism.
Elizabeth Hume, a broker associate with Group One Sotheby’s International Realty who has worked through multiple market cycles in Boise over the past 20 years, describes the current environment as a turning point. After a prolonged period in which higher mortgage rates kept many would-be sellers on the sidelines, Hume says the market is finally hitting what she calls “pain thresholds” – life events and financial pressures that are pushing people to transact despite less favorable conditions.
Breaking Through the Rate Lock
Rising mortgage rates, which jumped from around 3% to over 7% in recent years, initially froze much of the market. Many homeowners with low-rate loans were unwilling to sell and take on new, costlier mortgages. Hume explains that this “rate lock” effect is starting to break down as life circumstances take priority.
“If you have that low interest rate, getting rid of it is going to have to get kind of painful for you to be able to take on the higher mortgage rate,” Hume says. “I am seeing a lot more of those pain thresholds being hit, where people are willing to sell.”
The primary force behind this uptick in transactions is the aging baby boomer population. Hume notes a significant increase in estate sales and transactions linked to downsizing, moving closer to family, or transitioning to senior living. “I’ve seen a lot more estates this year than I’ve seen probably in my whole career,” she says. The large baby boomer cohort is expected to keep fueling this trend, bringing more homes to market as older owners move on or pass away.
Shifting Migration Patterns
During the pandemic, Boise became a magnet for buyers from California, fueling a surge in prices and out-of-state investment. That wave has now moderated, replaced by more nuanced migration patterns. Hume observes that while California buyers are still present, there is growing interest from Washington state residents, many of whom are attracted by Idaho’s more conservative political climate.
“I think all of it has a lot to do with politics, and some of it is lifestyle,” Hume says. Utah buyers are also arriving in greater numbers, although the lifestyle similarities between Utah and Idaho make these moves less dramatic. The result is a less frenzied, but still steady, flow of newcomers, each bringing different expectations and budgets to the market.
Local Buyer Challenges and Adaptations
The influx of higher-income buyers from out of state has widened the wealth gap between local residents and new arrivals. Homes that sold for $59,000 just a few years ago now routinely list for $275,000 or more, making it harder for first-time local buyers to compete.
Hume acknowledges these affordability challenges but believes some buyers can succeed by reordering their financial priorities. “If you’re serious and you want to buy a house, there’s a will, there’s a way,” she says. Hume points out that discretionary spending on conveniences like food delivery and coffee can add up, suggesting that some buyers could afford homeownership by making targeted lifestyle adjustments.
New Construction Dominance
One of the most significant trends in Boise’s market is the growing dominance of new home construction. National and local builders are aggressively marketing incentives, including financing assistance and mortgage rate buydowns that can lower effective rates to around 4% for qualified buyers. These incentives are making new construction more attractive, particularly as buyers seek move-in-ready homes with fewer immediate maintenance concerns.
“There’s just really nothing better than the smell of a new home,” Hume says. “You don’t have to worry about whether the furnace is going to go out. You don’t have to worry about all of those things.”
This shift puts pressure on sellers of existing homes, especially in neighborhoods where new construction is active. To compete, resale homes must offer superior location, competitive pricing, or unique features that set them apart from the standardized offerings of new builds.
Market Dynamics and Buyer Behavior
The Boise market has returned to more traditional negotiation patterns after the extreme seller’s market of the pandemic years. Buyers have regained leverage to include inspection, appraisal, and financing contingencies in their offers. While multiple offers still occur for well-priced or desirable properties, they are no longer the norm at every price point.
“I think there’s multiple offers at any price point, if it’s the right house and the right price,” Hume says. “But it’s not a for sure on every house. It’s definitely a question you ask the listing agent when you’re making an offer.”
Cash transactions remain a significant portion of the market, accounting for an estimated 25-30% of sales – similar to the pandemic peak. Despite perceptions that cash dominates, most transactions still involve some form of financing, reflecting the broader normalization of market activity.
Emerging Risks: Subject-To Transactions
A new risk facing Boise sellers is the rise of “subject-to” transaction proposals. In these deals, buyers offer to take over a seller’s existing low-rate mortgage without formally assuming the loan, leaving the original borrower on the hook with the lender if the buyer defaults.
“They’re a little bit dangerous,” Hume warns. “Lenders have a clause in every single one of their contracts that says if they find out you sold the house, they can call the note or ask you to pay for it in full.”
Hume reports seeing as many as 50 such proposals on a single listing, indicating that these arrangements are being heavily promoted, despite significant risks to sellers. Sellers should be cautious and seek professional advice before considering such offers.
Market Outlook and Pricing
Despite recent volatility, Boise’s long-term market fundamentals remain strong. Historical data shows an average annual appreciation of 6.7% over the past 20 years. Ada County’s median home price now stands at $555,000, reflecting both the region’s growth and the lasting impact of the pandemic-era boom.
The luxury segment has remained relatively stable, with steady demand and limited inventory. In contrast, the lower end of the market has experienced more downward price pressure and a noticeable increase in homes priced under $400,000. This divergence highlights the differing forces at work within Boise’s housing market, as affordability constraints weigh more heavily on entry-level buyers.
Looking Forward
Several factors are set to shape Boise’s real estate trajectory in the coming years: the ongoing transition of baby boomers out of longtime homes, increased competition from new construction, and evolving migration patterns as buyers respond to economic and political conditions. Buyers are also adapting to higher interest rates, recalibrating what they can afford and how they structure their offers.
For now, the Boise market appears to be settling into a more balanced state. Transaction activity is increasingly driven by genuine life needs – such as job changes, family transitions, or downsizing – rather than speculative investment or fear of missing out. This shift marks a return to fundamentals-based market conditions, offering greater predictability for industry professionals and investors.
The key takeaway from Boise’s experience is that markets eventually adapt to new economic realities, even if the adjustment period is lengthy. As Hume states, “If you want to buy, there’s a way to buy. If you talk to a realtor, we’ll get you in a house if that’s what you want.” This pragmatic approach is now defining the Boise market, signaling a new era of stability after years of upheaval.
